Is the second Intifada dead?
Arieh O’Sullivan argues in Jerusalem Post that the Second Intifada has been broken and terrorist activity has returned to pre-September 2000 level (I know nothing about this O’Sullivan person and nothing about his track record as an analyst):
The Aksa Intifada is over. No one in the IDF would be foolish enough to make such a far-reaching statement, but the statistics speak for themselves.
From the IDF’s perspective, the relative calm Israel is experiencing now is not connected to the death of Yasser Arafat or other changes in the Palestinian nation, but is rather the direct result of the aggressive action against terrorists by the IDF, aided by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and Border Police. The army said it has arrested six suicide bombers since Arafat died a month ago. This shows the motivation is still there, but the capabilities are steadily deteriorating.
For the moment, the Central Command can mark for itself an impressive achievement.
“Our rate of catching terrorists is now quicker than their rate of replacing themselves,” said a senior officer.
This means that the arrests and targeting of key terrorist cell leaders happen about as often as they take up command. They are nabbed before they gain sufficient expertise. In many cases, lower-level activists find themselves at the head of a cell, and even then spend most of their time avoiding arrest.
Of course, there’s always a downside:
There is no longer any organizational discipline among terrorist groups. The groups themselves are more or less cocktails of Hamas, Fatah Tanzim, Islamic Jihad and PFLP members. IDF sources described them as “less ideological and more territorial,” employing gang-type extortion to survive.
The Palestinians are said to be in a state of anarchy, accumulated fatigue and suffering from a loss of a sense of internal security from increasing crime, murder and burglary. Only 10 percent of crimes ever reach court, and there is a return to the clan justice of old.
IDF intelligence holds that nationalist terror is on the decline and global terrorism is taking its place. This can be seen in the increasing involvement of Hizbullah in Palestinian terror. The army maintains that about 75% of all West Bank terrorist cells are funded, directed and even armed by Hizbullah. It is also expected that Hizbullah will try to infiltrate agents into the territories and terrorists may adopt some of its public-relations tactics like filming attacks.
So you have to wonder why Russia employed barbaric and close to exterminatory tactics to defeat the Chechen rebellion? Because it felt like it, is my guess… There’s a bear in the woods. Some can see it clearly. Others can’t see it at all. Some say it’s tame. Others say it’s vicious. Since we can’t know for sure, isn’t it a good idea to be as strong as the bear? If there is a bear.
