One more look at the population numbers for Boston and Springfield
A couple of days ago I noted that the Boston Globe misstated Springfield’s estimated population by using a figure from the American Community Survey rather than the U.S. Census Bureau population estimate. The following day, I pointed out that Boston’s population declined significantly (to 569,000 in 2004 from 589,000 in 2000), while Springfield’s was practically unchanged during that same time period.
It’s hard to believe that Springfield’s population would remain unchanged while Boston’s decreased, but when you compare the 2004 American Community Survey with the 2000 Census, it actually seems plausible.
Comparing data from the ACS to data from the Census is tricky, but I think it is meaningful when there is an increase in the number of a certain population group, rather in its share of the overall population. Why the trickiness? To quote the Census Bureau’s website:
The 2004 American Community Survey universe is limited to the household population and excludes the population living in institutions, college dormitories, and other group quarters.
What further complicates the situation somewhat is that the Census Bureau also makes full-population estimates, along with the ACS. In other words, for 2004, we have both the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and the Bureau’s populaion estimate.
I don’t know about you, but that’s pretty much a brainful for me.
In 2000, Springfield’s population was 152,000. In 2004, the city’s estimated population was, again, 152,000. It’s ACS population in 2004 was 144,000. While the city’s population level was unchanged, the ACS shows us that its population composition had changed:
The ACS indicates that there 43,000 Latinos in Springfield in 2004, about 2,000 more than the 2000 Census found.
The number of foreign-born people in Springfield was 15,000 in 2004, and 12,000 in 2000.
The number of Asians increased to just under 4,500 from just under 3,000.
The growth in foreign born, Latinos, and Asians from 2000 to 2004 help explain why Springfield’s population remained more or less unchanged from 2000 to 2004.
So who left the city?
Native-born whites, is my guess.
The number of whites declined from 74,000 in the 2000 Census to 63,000 in 2004 ACS. Again, keep in mind that the ACS surveys a narrower part of the population than do the Census counts and estimates, so a lower number is to be expected in the ACS than in the Census. Even so, the difference between the ACS Springfield population and the Census 2004 estimate for Springfield’s population is 8,000, substantially less than the loss of whites.
The loss of whites is seemingly supported by enrollment statistics in Springfield’s public schools, where the share of white students declined to 19.5% in “2004-05″ from 21.8% in “2003″ (I’m quoting the somewhat inconsistent No Child Left Behind report cards for Springfield Public Schools). During the same period, the share of Latino students increased to 49.9%, from 47.2%.
Overall student enrollment in SPS declined to 25,975 from 26,594, with the loss of white students exceeding the total loss.
What is somewhat disturbing is that the number of poor people also increased, to 38,800 in the 2004 ACS from 33,700 in the 2000 Census - again, the ACS measures a smaller part of the population..
The corresponding numbers for Boston indicates that the Hub of the Universe may in fact be experiencing a decline in population. While the ACS for Springfield finds increases in the number of Latinos, Asians, and foreign-born compared to the 2000 Census, the numbers are down for Latinos and foreign-born in Boston, while the numbers of Asians surprisingly is up in the ACS. The number of whites is down 44,000, covering almost the entire gap between the ACS and the 2004 Census estimate, twice the gap between the 2000 Census and the 2004 Census estimate, but only two-thirds of the gap between the 2000 Census and the 2004 ACS. According to Boston Public Schools’ website, Boston also has a somewhat declining number of students (for example, 60,000 in 2004, 58,000 in 2005, continuing an already existing trend).
On the other hand, the ACS recorded some 10,000 fewer poor people in 2004 than the Census did in 2000.
Judging from the ACS and Census numbers, it does seem as if Boston indeed is losing population, and while that loss is concentrated to whites, there may also be some population losses among other races in the Hub of the Universe.
I shall hopefully do another post on the Springfield and Boston populations this weekend, one with fewer numbers and more opinions.
