*Updated with more links to commentary on Mexico’s presidential election*
Allan Wall has another interesting dispatch from Mexico on Vdare.com discussing the July 2 presidential election in Mexico. Mr. Wall is an immigration-restrictionist who rather likes Mexico, where he lives and works and is married to a Mexican. He does not care for the assumption among much of American punditocracy that it would be good for America if Mexicans elect a pro-American president:
[B]eing “pro-American” is not part of the job description of the president of Mexico. It’s really not. I’d settle for having a pro-American U.S. president!
Mr. Wall on the ideological positions of Mexico’s presidential candidates:
Getting back to Lopez Obrador, is he a “far-left” candidate? Well, yes. But by American standards, all the candidates are leftist. Calderon, the “right-wing” candidate, favors universal state-supported day care centers for Mexican children!
And what could that mean for Republicans?
Mexico’s political system sits farther to the left than ours does. That’s why most Mexican immigrants can be expected to vote for the Democratic party. Teddy Kennedy understands that. Do Bush and McCain?
Mr. Wall on left-wing candidate Lopez Obrador’s desire to renegotiate NAFTA:
Lopez Obrador is concerned about 2008, the year in which NAFTA forces Mexico to remove its tariffs on U.S. corn and beans. And he’s right to be concerned about it. So should we. Poor Mexican farmers cannot compete with subsidized American agribusiness.
When cheaper American corn and beans invade Mexico, you can expect thousands of poor Mexican farmers to go out of business and migrate to the U.S., maybe to your town.
Considering that NAFTA has so far worked mostly, perhaps exclusively, to increase rather than decrease migration from Mexico to America, it seems prudent to not rush to the next set of agricultural deregulation.
Venezuela’s rabidly anti-American and authoritarian president Hugo Chavez looms in the background, but Mr. Wall doesn’t see him as important to Mexico:
Alarmists have also told us that AMLO [Lopez Obrador] is an ally of Venezuela’s neo-communist Hugo Chavez, and that Mexico will join Venezuela’s axis. That’s been the drum Dick Morris has been beating.
The Hugo Chavez-AMLO connection is way overblown and tenuous at best. The two haven’t even met. Except for meddling in U.S. immigration policy, like all Mexican candidates, Lopez Obrador has little interest in politics outside of Mexico.
…
[N]o Mexican president is going to become a satellite of Hugo Chavez. Why would he? Mexico ALREADY has more influence on the United States than Hugo Chavez ever did. Mexico has a huge population of its citizens living in the U.S., it has consulates that meddle in U.S. internal affairs, and its politicians make frequent forays into U.S. territory to make things go their way. Could Hugo Chavez get away with all that? The guy must be green with envy!
You can read Mr. Wall’s piece in its entirety here.
More commentary on Mexico’s election:
Ilya Shapiro writes on libertarian TCS Daily:
And that’s the thing: the socio-economic snippet of Mexico City and environs that I witnessed reflects the reality of so many places in both the developing and developed world. Walmart, new technologies, and greater exposure to the outside world provide cheaper goods, new conveniences, and social mobility to a burgeoning middle class. But the owners of mom-and-pop shops, inhabitants of traditional rural communities, and the unskilled descamisados (to borrow a term from Perón’s Argentina), can and do get left behind.
It’s classic Schumpeterian creative destruction, and it can be good for a country trying to raise itself by its bootstraps. But a restructured economy without a liberalized labor force (or improved schools) also creates plentiful social tensions. Hence AMLO’s constituency — and the (state-supported) safety valve of escape into El Norte.
My experience from the the brutal restructuring of Sweden’s economy in the first half of the 1990’s tells me that Mexico has a long way to go before it can undergo “classic Schumpeterian creative destruction” without sending new waves of emigrants to America. Mexico is so far behind, and America so far ahead, that El Norte will continue to exert a strong pull on millions of Mexicans for years and years to come, no matter how brilliantly Mexico’s economy is managed over the next 20 years. And it probably won’t be brilliantly managed at all.
Washington Post columnist and economist Robert J. Samuelson stresses the obvious but unavoidable truth:
For Americans, the implications are sobering. Mexico has long regarded immigration as an economic safety valve. Whoever wins, that won’t change.
Political science assistant professor Davi Shirk sees the election as a referendum Obrador:
In many ways, this election is López Obrador’s to lose. Many Mexicans feel disappointed that the Fox administration failed to deliver on his promises to bring change. With continued concerns over crime, failure to achieve an immigration accord with the United States, and 40 percent of the population still living in poverty, it is easy to see why.
Yet, the primary issue of this election that most Mexican voters are pondering is not public security, migration or jobs, but López Obrador himself. His opponents have effectively conjured negative images of leftist extremism that López Obrador has done little to diminish. Thus, whatever doubt exists about the upcoming election, the real question that Mexicans will decide on Sunday is whether López Obrador is fit to govern.