The Census Bureau releases revised population estimates for Boston 2000 - 2005

In the years following the 2000 population count, the United States Census Bureau estimated a rather steep population decline for Boston, from 589,000 in 2000 to 559,000 in 2005. Then , in October last year, the Census Bureau issued a revised population estimate for Boston after the city’s mayor Thomas M. Menino had complained loudly that the city by no means was losing people. Lo and behold, the revised estimate for Boston’s 2005 population was 596,000 people, vindicating the Mayor. The revision raised a number of questions that I don’t think anybody in media cared to ask: Why had the Bureau’s original estimation been so inaccurate? Would the Bureau revise the population estimates for years 2001 - 2004 as well? How would the findings of the annual American Community Survey for Boston for years 2002 - 2005 be affected (2001 was a trial year for ACS and Boston wasn’t included in it)? Would the Bureau also revise population estimates for Suffolk County, where Boston makes up some 80% of the population?

The Bureau’s original and now discarded estimates probably led to Nielsen dropping Boston from the top five media markets. It has also led to cries for increased state spending to do the job that the federal agency isn’t doing very well.

We have yet to find out how the Bureau could have been so spectacularly wrong - if indeed its original population estimates for Boston were wrong - but we have learned that it has revised population estimates for Boston and Suffolk county. Next month, in August, the Bureau will release the 2006 American Community Survey and we will then find out what impact the population revisions have had on the Survey.

For now, let’s have a look at the original and revised populations estimates for Boston, Suffolk County, and the non-Boston part of the county 2000 - 2006. Remember the sole estimate for Boston’s population in 2006 is 590,763, which should be seen as a continuation of the revised estimates series. The corresponding number for Suffolk county is 687,610, which leaves 96,847 for Suffolk county outside of Boston (Chelsea, Revere, and Winthrop).

	Original and revised population estimates for Boston, Massachusetts, 2001 - 2005
	Original	Revised	Diff.
July 1, 2005	559,034	596,638	37,604
July 1, 2004	567,660	589,048	21,388
July 1, 2003	577,432	587,342	9,910
July 1, 2002	585,259	587,224	1,965
July 1, 2001	590,293	588,322	1,971
July 1, 2000	589,255	588,322	933
April 1, 2000 (Census 2000)*	589,141	589,141	-

* As counted by the 2000 Census

As the table shows, the original and revised estimates diverge sharply starting in 2003. Interestingly, the American Community Survey 2002 reported a household population of 545,000 in Boston, 9,000 fewer than the Census had counted in 2000, seemingly suggesting a downward trend in population size that appeared to be confirmed by the 2003 population estimate and ACS

Here’s a corresponding table for Suffolk county. The county’s population was estimated at 687,610 in 2006.

	Suffolk County, Massachusetts
	Original estimate	Revised estimate	Difference
July 1, 2005	654,428	691,965	37,537
July 1, 2004	664,263	694,582	30,319
July 1, 2003	675,738	699,359	23,621
July 1, 2002	685,072	702,305	17,233
July 1, 2001	691,223	700,988	9,765
July 1, 2000	689,943	689,985	42
April 1, 2000 (Census 2000)*	689,807	689,807	-

Finally, here’s a table that shows the original and revised population estimates for Suffolk outside of Boston:

	Population estimates for Suffolk county excluding Boston, 2001 - 2005
	Original estimate	Revised estimate	Difference
July 1, 2005	95,394	95,327	67
July 1, 2004	96,603	105,534	8,931
July 1, 2003	98,306	112,017	13,711
July 1, 2002	99,813	115,081	15,268
July 1, 2001	100,930	112,666	11,736
April 1, 2000 (Census 2000)*	100,666	100,666	-

Considering that the Bureau’s current population estimate for Suffolk county and the city of Boston is that both experienced little if any population change 2000 - 2006, the Bureau’s original estimates for Suffolk’s non-Boston populations seem more reasonable than the revised ones, which have the combined populations of Chelsea, Revere, and Winthrop fluctuate wildly, increasing by some fifteen thousand from 2000 to 2002, then falling by about twenty thousand from 2002 - 2005, all while Boston’s population remained more or less unchanged.

Here are the revised population estimates for Chelsea and Revere (I don’t have all of the original estimates):

	Chelsea	Revere
July 1, 2006	32,792	46,833
July 1, 2005	32,496	45,773
July 1, 2004	36,186	50,325
July 1, 2003	38,582	53,121
July 1, 2002	39,692	54,483
July 1, 2001	39,119	53,109
July 1, 2000	35,156	47,426
April 1, 2000 (Census 2000)	35,080	47,283

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